When:
-
Where: 160 Cunz Hall (and Zoom)
Josephine Wairimu, a Postdoc with OSU HEALMOD Laboratory, will be giving a talk titled "Modeling Infectious Disease Dynamics: Fitting Network Models with Poisson-Distributed Contact Patterns"
Abstract: In this talk, I will present a novel approach to modeling disease dynamics by transforming the traditional dynamical survival SIR model into an Edge-based Configuration Network (EBC) model. This enhanced model captures individual infection and recovery dynamics while incorporating the heterogeneity of contact patterns, which are essential for accurate disease transmission modeling. Unlike the classical SIR model, this approach enables statistical inference and likelihood computation, significantly improving predictive accuracy and data fitting in diverse contact environments. The talk will also cover the validation of this model using several datasets, which demonstrate superior fit and parameter recovery compared to existing models. Specifically, the results, implemented using R, Rstan, and Robust Adaptive MCMC, were applied to the 1978 England School Influenza dataset and recent Ebola outbreak data from the Democratic Republic of Congo.
To attend this event virtually, please join the Zoom meeting.
Meeting ID: 930 1546 3738
Password: 713737
